According to a study carried out by Juan Vilar y Jorge Pereira, two consultants of the International Olive Oil Council, about first estimations for the 2018/19 production, we would see the highest olive oil production ever recorded. They drew up the report with information gathered through almost half a thousand contacts distributed by the 58 producer countries of olive oil.
If the climatology allows it, and with the prudence that the agricultural production forecasts require, the next production of olive oil would be 3,4 million tonnes, surpassing by 1% the two record campaigns until now, 2011/12 and 2017/18 both with 3.3 million tons.
Although olive oil is produced in 58 countries, which have been all analyzed, only 10 will generate 93% of the world’s olive oil. Spain, the main provider worldwide of olive oil will show an important increase of 1,6 thousand tonnes, which means an increase of 28% compared to 2017/18, with an obvious enhanced quality. And Italy is expected to have a decreased production, mainly due to frosts in the predominantly olive production area of Puglia, reaching 310,000 tonnes. Greece estimates an important decrease compared to last campaign, producing a maximum of 305,000 tonnes in 2018/19. There is also concern about serious problems in quality regarding some areas, if worst expectations are confirmed with regard to olive fly and gloeosporium infection.
Portugal which would experience an increase of almost 4%, reaching 140 thousand tonnes. Morocco, for its part, could reach 155 thousand tonnes, experiencing a growth of almost 11%.
To conclude, Argentina will grow 3,45% reaching 45 thousand tonnes. On the contrary, Syria, due to political and climatic reasons, will fall to 80 thousand tonnes (-20%). Algeria will manifest a growth coinciding with the expansion of the cultivation in that country, and thanks to the abundant rains of spring, will reach up to 95 thousand tonnes (+19%).
Cumulatively, the production of the new 2018/19 crop year in the eight Mediterranean countries is expected to be approximately at the same levels as last year. This will result mainly from Spain’s increase, which will balance the decrease of almost all other countries.
The total production of fruit, worldwide, will grow by 14% compared to the average of the previous campaigns, being a large part of the increase destined to the production of olive oil.