World production of olive oil will reach 3,222,090 tonnes in the 2019/20 season, which is 2% more than in the previous season, according to the capacity carried out by the Department of Olive Studies of the Centre of Excellence of Olive Oil of GEA, directed by Rafael Cárdenas and Aymen Bejaoui.

This study highlights the drastic change in the distribution of production in the large producing countries, as Spain's production falls while it increases significantly in countries such as Tunisia, Italy and Greece.

This capacity details that Spain will register a decrease of 20% compared to the previous season, up to 1,250,000 tonnes, which represents 38.8% of world production. This drop in production is mainly due to the drought that affected the traditional dry olive grove, particularly in the provinces of Jaén and Córdoba.

Tunisia will be the second producing country, more than doubling its production compared to the previous season. Thus, it will reach a historical record in production reaching 390,000 tonnes (12% of world production) of olive oil, surpassing its historical maximum production of 340,000 tonnes in the 2014/15 campaign. This increase is mainly due to last year's low production and recent rains.

For its part, Greece will reach the third position in the world, shared with Italy, reaching 320,000 tonnes of olive oil (10% world production), which represents an increase over the previous season of 45%.

Italy will increase its production by 60% compared to the previous season, to 320,000 tonnes (10% of world production), due to the recovery of the olive grove after the problems that have occurred in recent years.

In fifth position is Turkey, which maintains a production similar to the previous year, with 200,000 tonnes of olive oil (6% of world production), followed by Morocco, whose estimated production is at 160,000 tonnes (5% of world production), thanks to super intensive plantations that are being carried out in the last decade in the North African country.

The seventh producer, as last season, will be Portugal, which increases its production to 140,000 tonnes (+21.7%), and closing the group of the eight largest producers is Syria again, which increases its production by 20% to reach 120,000 tonnes, which contribute 3.7% of world production.

According to this capacity, these eight large producers will contribute 87.3% of world olive oil production next season, a really significant figure because last season they obtained 87.43% of production. For GEA, "this gives us great stability in world production, which will only be altered by a year in which the environmental conditions are similar in these eight countries, which will mean that, if they are very good, overproduction will be achieved. In this situation, we could reach 4 million tonnes of olive oil, or, if the conditions are very unfavourable, an underproduction that would be close to 2 million tonnes.

Fuente: Mercacei